Karr A.F. Lanchester attrition processes and theater-level combat models

Institute for Defense Analyses, 1981. — 73 p.This paper is an expository survey of some aspects of the theory of Lanchester attrition processes and of applications of these processes in models of theater-level combat. Classical Lanchester differentials-including homogeneous and heterogeneous square and linear laws-are discussed. Underlying assumptions and mathematical forms of analogous continuous time, discrete state space Markov attrition processes are presented. A detailed treatment of a class of simplified ('binomial') attrition equations is given, including underlying assumptions, exact equations for expected attrition and exponential approximations to the exact equations. Applications of the binomial and Markov attrition processes as the basis for attrition calculations in the CONAF Evaluation Model, the IDAGAM I Model, the Lulejian-I Model and the VECTOR-2 Model (4 principal documented models of theater-level combat) are considered.