Bankes Steven C. Methodological considerations in using simulation to assess the combat value of intelligence and electronic warfare

Santa Monica, California: RAND Corp., 1991. — 19 p.The Operational Value of Intelligence and Electronic Warfare (OPVIEW) project is endeavoring to develop means for evaluating intelligence and electronic warfare/target acquisition (IEW/TA) systems in terms of their contribution to combat outcomes through the use of simulation. The challenge of adequately representing the intelligence process in a simulation model is being met through model representations. These will be described in subsequent documents. A greater and more fundamental challenge is to contend with potentially large sensitivities of combat outcomes to multiple assumptions having unresolvable uncertainties. Many details of future combat situations are quite uncertain, which poses a problem for the use of simulation is assessing combat outcomes. Furthermore, the inclusion of IEW/TA causes a substantial increase in the amount of uncertainty above what must be addressed in simulations directed primarily toward lethal systems. Consequently, the use of simulation in evaluating the contribution of IEW/TA to combat outcomes requires innovative approaches.